IMCL Showing Some Strength Today
At precisely 11:32:55 this morning, IMCL broke through its multi-year high. As I type this it is trading at 43.91. As Martha might say, “this is a good thing.”
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Dow Jones Industrial Average Crosses 13,000 for First Time
In case you weren’t watching, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 13,000 this morning for the first time in history.
As you can see, it crossed the 13,000 line three times by just a few minutes after 10:00. Of course, this market is based on 2007 dollars, which are fairly weak. If you were to index this to the high in 2000 based on the value of U.S. dollars in 2000, we probably still have some ground to cover. But psychologically this is good for the markets in general.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer is predicting that the DJIA will be above 14,000 by the end of the year. I like that kind of optimism, and I hope he’s right, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
As you can see, it crossed the 13,000 line three times by just a few minutes after 10:00. Of course, this market is based on 2007 dollars, which are fairly weak. If you were to index this to the high in 2000 based on the value of U.S. dollars in 2000, we probably still have some ground to cover. But psychologically this is good for the markets in general.
CNBC’s Jim Cramer is predicting that the DJIA will be above 14,000 by the end of the year. I like that kind of optimism, and I hope he’s right, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Roanoke Roots—Mine Run Pretty Deep
Can I brag just a little bit about my Roanoke roots? Thanks. I knew you’d understand.
Here is an article that appeared in the Roanoke Times on July 3, 1954, the day before my great-grandfather, Timothy Preston Sisson, turned 100 years old. The article, besides being of interest to any of his living relatives and to those who like stories of human interest in general, also would be of interest to people who like to learn about the history of the Roanoke valley, as it has an interesting little tidbit about life in the valley as it was a century-and-a-half ago. I have corrected a few typos and added bold-type emphasis as well as a footnote and some additional information.
1 I don’t know where the “born in England” claim originated, but it can be proved beyond doubt by existing records that Ludlow Branham Sisson’s American ancestry goes back four generations at the very least and possibly even two more to Thomas Sisson, a London haberdasher who took the oath of allegiance to the crown in Jamestown, VA in 1624. Ludlow Sisson was born in Rockbridge Co., VA on Feb. 3, 1797.
Here’s a scanned image of the article. You can click on it for a larger view:
Actually my Roanoke roots go even deeper than this, as Ludlow Sisson’s father-in-law (my great-great-great-great-grandfather), Mathias Grisso, settled near Back Creek on Sugarloaf Mountain some time in the late 1700’s. Ludlow’s father, Stanley Sisson, also secured a grant for property on Back Creek in the Starkey area in 1797. (Stanley moved on to Gallia Co., Ohio, some time between 1828 and 1830, though Ludlow stayed.)
That’s my mom’s side of the family. On my father’s side, my great-great-great-great-grandfather, John Broadwater, was born Feb. 28, 1788 on the property adjoining that of Samuel Harshbarger near the corner of present-day Hershberger & Plantation Roads.
There may be a few people in Roanoke who can claim local roots deeper than mine, but not very many I’d venture to say.
Here is an article that appeared in the Roanoke Times on July 3, 1954, the day before my great-grandfather, Timothy Preston Sisson, turned 100 years old. The article, besides being of interest to any of his living relatives and to those who like stories of human interest in general, also would be of interest to people who like to learn about the history of the Roanoke valley, as it has an interesting little tidbit about life in the valley as it was a century-and-a-half ago. I have corrected a few typos and added bold-type emphasis as well as a footnote and some additional information.
Shawsville Family Reunion To Be 100th Birthday Party
Princeton, W. Va., Resident Will Mark Anniversary Today at Gathering
PRINCETON, W. Va., July 3-Timothy Preston Sisson seated himself in a comfortable chair on his son’s farm just north of Princeton and rested for a few minutes this week.
“I’VE WORKED hard all my life and enjoyed it,” he said, “but I’m taking it easy so that I will be in shape for a trip to Shawsville, Va., on July 4.” On that date Sisson will celebrate his 100th birthday with a family reunion as part of the big event.
Lowery Bowling, clerk of the Mercer County Court, says that Sisson is the oldest living person in the county. He was born on July 4, 1854, in a little settlement of one store and five houses known as Big Lick, Va., and now named Roanoke.
Sisson was raised by his grandfather, Ludlow Sisson, who was born in England and settled near Natural Bridge in Virginia.1
“My grandfather was a John Wesley Methodist and a man of stern character,” Sisson explained. “He took me to church every Sunday as long as he lived and I’ve never quit going. For 30 years I was an active church worker and I preached for five years.”
Presently a member of the Church of the Nazarene in Princeton, Sisson still attends services often. On Friday, July 16, the Nazarene churches in Princeton, Athens and Bluefield will honor him with a birthday party at Glenwood Park. Singing, preaching and a good country dinner are planned.
The amazing inventions of science during the last 100 years have impressed Sisson, but the one that has left its mark was the stove. He remembers driving six miles with an uncle in a wagon to bring the first cooking stove into the neighborhood. All the cooking before that memorable day had been done in the fireplace.
Sisson remembers that most of the Confederate War activity in the neighborhood came as fights between deserters and the regular Confederate soldiers who were sent after them. All his relatives were members of the Confederate Army, one of them attaining the rank of colonel.
Recounting the romance leading up to his marriage, Sisson said he thought he’d never win his bride, the former Lucy Smith of Floyd County, Va. “We lived together for 71 years without a cross word being spoken,” he said. “Maybe it’s because I always minded her.”
Mrs. Sisson died in 1947 at the age of 91.
A FARM at Shawsville and trading in livestock and horses kept him busy while the couple raised nine children. Six children are still living.
“When I was 82, my son, Robert, made me give up farming; said I was too old,” Sisson continued. “Five years ago he bought this 370-acre farm and we moved here from Bluefield. I cleared most of the chinquapins and brush off the land. I was 95 then.”
Sisson related the events of his life as he rested in his chair. He’d just taken a pail of milk down to feed his pigs.
A lifelong Republican, Sisson has voted for 18 presidents of the United States beginning with Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876. He missed voting in last years presidential election because his change of residence had not been recorded with the county clerk.
When the family gathers at Shawsville Sunday, the old gentleman expects to see his other five children besides the youngest, Robert, with whom he lives. Twenty-six grandchildren, 54 great-grandchildren and seven great-great-grandchildren are also expected. He has never seen some of the great and great-great-grandchildren.
Sisson has never smoked or tasted alcohol in his life. He did take a chew of “old brown twisted tobacco once and became deathly sick.” He never tried it a second time.
HE HAS never been sick in his 100 years of active living, never used any medicine and has seen a doctor only twice for treatment of injuries. He believes he’s lived so long because he “has had a strong faith and belief in God which have kept him from worrying himself to death.” But he says he would not want to be starting life now and face it for 100 years.
“There’s too much confusion and uncertainty,” he says. “All the calm, easy-going days of the past are gone. They were the best.”
Princeton, W. Va., Resident Will Mark Anniversary Today at Gathering
PRINCETON, W. Va., July 3-Timothy Preston Sisson seated himself in a comfortable chair on his son’s farm just north of Princeton and rested for a few minutes this week.
“I’VE WORKED hard all my life and enjoyed it,” he said, “but I’m taking it easy so that I will be in shape for a trip to Shawsville, Va., on July 4.” On that date Sisson will celebrate his 100th birthday with a family reunion as part of the big event.
Lowery Bowling, clerk of the Mercer County Court, says that Sisson is the oldest living person in the county. He was born on July 4, 1854, in a little settlement of one store and five houses known as Big Lick, Va., and now named Roanoke.
Sisson was raised by his grandfather, Ludlow Sisson, who was born in England and settled near Natural Bridge in Virginia.1
“My grandfather was a John Wesley Methodist and a man of stern character,” Sisson explained. “He took me to church every Sunday as long as he lived and I’ve never quit going. For 30 years I was an active church worker and I preached for five years.”
Presently a member of the Church of the Nazarene in Princeton, Sisson still attends services often. On Friday, July 16, the Nazarene churches in Princeton, Athens and Bluefield will honor him with a birthday party at Glenwood Park. Singing, preaching and a good country dinner are planned.
The amazing inventions of science during the last 100 years have impressed Sisson, but the one that has left its mark was the stove. He remembers driving six miles with an uncle in a wagon to bring the first cooking stove into the neighborhood. All the cooking before that memorable day had been done in the fireplace.
Sisson remembers that most of the Confederate War activity in the neighborhood came as fights between deserters and the regular Confederate soldiers who were sent after them. All his relatives were members of the Confederate Army, one of them attaining the rank of colonel.
Recounting the romance leading up to his marriage, Sisson said he thought he’d never win his bride, the former Lucy Smith of Floyd County, Va. “We lived together for 71 years without a cross word being spoken,” he said. “Maybe it’s because I always minded her.”
Mrs. Sisson died in 1947 at the age of 91.
A FARM at Shawsville and trading in livestock and horses kept him busy while the couple raised nine children. Six children are still living.
“When I was 82, my son, Robert, made me give up farming; said I was too old,” Sisson continued. “Five years ago he bought this 370-acre farm and we moved here from Bluefield. I cleared most of the chinquapins and brush off the land. I was 95 then.”
Sisson related the events of his life as he rested in his chair. He’d just taken a pail of milk down to feed his pigs.
A lifelong Republican, Sisson has voted for 18 presidents of the United States beginning with Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876. He missed voting in last years presidential election because his change of residence had not been recorded with the county clerk.
When the family gathers at Shawsville Sunday, the old gentleman expects to see his other five children besides the youngest, Robert, with whom he lives. Twenty-six grandchildren, 54 great-grandchildren and seven great-great-grandchildren are also expected. He has never seen some of the great and great-great-grandchildren.
Sisson has never smoked or tasted alcohol in his life. He did take a chew of “old brown twisted tobacco once and became deathly sick.” He never tried it a second time.
HE HAS never been sick in his 100 years of active living, never used any medicine and has seen a doctor only twice for treatment of injuries. He believes he’s lived so long because he “has had a strong faith and belief in God which have kept him from worrying himself to death.” But he says he would not want to be starting life now and face it for 100 years.
“There’s too much confusion and uncertainty,” he says. “All the calm, easy-going days of the past are gone. They were the best.”
1 I don’t know where the “born in England” claim originated, but it can be proved beyond doubt by existing records that Ludlow Branham Sisson’s American ancestry goes back four generations at the very least and possibly even two more to Thomas Sisson, a London haberdasher who took the oath of allegiance to the crown in Jamestown, VA in 1624. Ludlow Sisson was born in Rockbridge Co., VA on Feb. 3, 1797.
Here’s a scanned image of the article. You can click on it for a larger view:
Actually my Roanoke roots go even deeper than this, as Ludlow Sisson’s father-in-law (my great-great-great-great-grandfather), Mathias Grisso, settled near Back Creek on Sugarloaf Mountain some time in the late 1700’s. Ludlow’s father, Stanley Sisson, also secured a grant for property on Back Creek in the Starkey area in 1797. (Stanley moved on to Gallia Co., Ohio, some time between 1828 and 1830, though Ludlow stayed.)
That’s my mom’s side of the family. On my father’s side, my great-great-great-great-grandfather, John Broadwater, was born Feb. 28, 1788 on the property adjoining that of Samuel Harshbarger near the corner of present-day Hershberger & Plantation Roads.
There may be a few people in Roanoke who can claim local roots deeper than mine, but not very many I’d venture to say.
Monday, April 23, 2007
What a Woman!
This is a great story:
82-year-old Venus Ramey of Lincoln County, Kentucky, confronted three men who had been stealing machine parts off of old metalworking equipment she had stored in a building. Balancing on her walking stick, this no-nonsense lady pulled out a snub-nosed .38-caliber pistol and shot out a tire on the thieves’ truck so they could not get away. She then flagged down a passing vehicle and had someone call 911 to send out the police to have the men arrested. All three were arrested, one at the scene, and the other two walking on a nearby road.
Recounting the story, Ramey said, “I didn’t even think twice. I just went and did it. If they’d even dared come close to me, they’d be 6 feet under by now.”
The thing that makes this story even more interesting is the fact that Venus Ramey was crowned Miss America in 1944, representing the District of Columbia in the contest. Wow! What a woman!
82-year-old Venus Ramey of Lincoln County, Kentucky, confronted three men who had been stealing machine parts off of old metalworking equipment she had stored in a building. Balancing on her walking stick, this no-nonsense lady pulled out a snub-nosed .38-caliber pistol and shot out a tire on the thieves’ truck so they could not get away. She then flagged down a passing vehicle and had someone call 911 to send out the police to have the men arrested. All three were arrested, one at the scene, and the other two walking on a nearby road.
Recounting the story, Ramey said, “I didn’t even think twice. I just went and did it. If they’d even dared come close to me, they’d be 6 feet under by now.”
The thing that makes this story even more interesting is the fact that Venus Ramey was crowned Miss America in 1944, representing the District of Columbia in the contest. Wow! What a woman!
Venus Ramey's page at missamerica.org
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Are “Gun-free Zones” Barrels of Fish for Shooters?
Tennessee Moves to Allow Guns in Public Buildings
NASHVILLE — In a surprise move, a House panel voted today to repeal a state law that forbids the carrying of handguns on property and buildings owned by state, county and city governments — including parks and playgrounds.
“I think the recent Virginia disaster — or catastrophe or nightmare or whatever you want to call it — has woken up a lot of people to the need for having guns available to law-abiding citizens,” said Rep. Frank Niceley, R-Strawberry Plains. “I hope that is what this vote reflects.”
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Personal Reflections
Some personal reflections:
I was just thinking about the time I spent working at the Owens Dining Hall at Virginia Tech. I looked up some information and discovered that "the Hokie Grill" located there reopened in Aug. 1997 after being renovated. I'm sure that is the time I was there.
If you go to this link and look around the inside of the room, you can see the salad bar I and a few others installed that was built by the shop I worked at at the time. We actually did quite a lot of work in there that you can't see--all the countertops, all the cabinetry behind the counters and at the checkouts, butcher blocks in the kitchen, decorative trash can enclosures, trim mouldings, etc.
I liked working at that place because it's so attractive, so beautiful, and (ironically today) so peaceful. Also I happen to know that my grandmother's first cousin, who was a stone mason extraordinaire, was a foreman on the crew that built some of the many stone exteriors of the buildings on that campus.
Obviously my connection to the campus is not as strong as that of many others, but I can't help thinking about that stuff anyway. I guess I'm still just trying to digest the enormity of this horrifying incident, and I can't imagine the emotions that must be going on within those who have lost loved ones in this tragedy.
I was just thinking about the time I spent working at the Owens Dining Hall at Virginia Tech. I looked up some information and discovered that "the Hokie Grill" located there reopened in Aug. 1997 after being renovated. I'm sure that is the time I was there.
If you go to this link and look around the inside of the room, you can see the salad bar I and a few others installed that was built by the shop I worked at at the time. We actually did quite a lot of work in there that you can't see--all the countertops, all the cabinetry behind the counters and at the checkouts, butcher blocks in the kitchen, decorative trash can enclosures, trim mouldings, etc.
I liked working at that place because it's so attractive, so beautiful, and (ironically today) so peaceful. Also I happen to know that my grandmother's first cousin, who was a stone mason extraordinaire, was a foreman on the crew that built some of the many stone exteriors of the buildings on that campus.
Obviously my connection to the campus is not as strong as that of many others, but I can't help thinking about that stuff anyway. I guess I'm still just trying to digest the enormity of this horrifying incident, and I can't imagine the emotions that must be going on within those who have lost loved ones in this tragedy.
Monday, April 16, 2007
An Incredible Story of Survival
From the Collegiate Times comes this incredible story of survival:
According to a CNN report by Jeanne Meserve, Erin Sheehan survived by lying on the floor, playing dead.
Monday, April 16th 2007 5:27PM
Students react to the tragedy
T.Rees Shapiro, CT Staff Writer
Erin Sheehan was one of four people able to walk out of her 9:05 German class in room 207 Norris Hall.
"It's a small class, about 25 people," she said. "And I would say no more than 2 people didn't show up, were absent. And of those of us that were in there today, only four of us walked out of that room, but two of us had been injured during the shooting," Sheehan said.
"It seemed so strange," Sheehan said. "Because he peaked in twice, earlier in the lesson, like he was looking for someone, somebody, before he started shooting. But then we all heard something like drilling in the walls, and someone thought they sounded like bullets. That's when we blockaded the door to stop anyone from coming in."
"He was just a normal looking kid, Asian, but he had on a Boy Scout type outfit. He wore a tan button up vest, and this black vest, maybe it was for ammo or something."
"I saw bullets hit people's body," Sheehan said. "There was blood everywhere. People in the class were passed out, I don't know maybe from shock from the pain. But I was one of only four that made it out of that classroom. The rest were dead or injured." She described.
"My professor, Herr Bishop," Sheehan said, "I'm not sure if he's alive."
Philip Kai Seward, who started a Facebook group back in August about the William Morva incident described his closeness to the events of today.
"I started phoning around to some of my friends," Seward said, "And eventually I got in touch with Erin."
"She told me she was one of just a few people to make it alive out of a class room that got attacked."
"I picked her up from the Blacksburg Police Department just a while ago, but when she first told me what had happened I thought it was all a bad joke," Seward said.
"It was all just a surreal moment," Seward said. "When I realized it wasn't."
According to a CNN report by Jeanne Meserve, Erin Sheehan survived by lying on the floor, playing dead.
More Unconfirmed Details Trickling Out
From Sky News:
“Witnesses said he entered the college looking for his girlfriend. According to one, he had an ‘ungodly’ amount of ammunition on him.
“He reportedly lined up students and opened fire at them. He was said to be a young Asian.”
“Witnesses said he entered the college looking for his girlfriend. According to one, he had an ‘ungodly’ amount of ammunition on him.
“He reportedly lined up students and opened fire at them. He was said to be a young Asian.”
VA Tech Notices
Evidently the VA Tech server is down, but you can find their notices posted here.
Correction: These postings are from the college's newspaper.
Correction: These postings are from the college's newspaper.
This Just Keeps Getting Worse
It is now reported that the number of confirmed dead in this horrible shooting is 32.
More on the Blacksburg Shooting
Fox News Channel is reporting that a student told them one gunman came onto the campus looking for his girlfriend, lining up the students and shooting some of them execution style. This is absolutely unbelievable.
Also, the reports are now saying that at least 22 are dead, including one of the gunmen.
Also, the reports are now saying that at least 22 are dead, including one of the gunmen.
Shooting in Blacksburg
The local television news is reporting on a tragic shooting in Blacksburg on the campus of VA Tech, which will doubtless bring national news coverage. I'm in shock as I'm listening to the current reports of 20 students dead in an apparent random shooting. That count may or may not increase as the news reports progress. It is also being reported that one gunman has been apprehended and that they are still trying to apprehend a second gunman. This is unbelievably tragic, horrifying.
Edit: Correction: I just heard reported that one of the gunmen is dead, though it is unclear whether he shot himself or whether he was shot by the police or someone else.
Edit: Correction: I just heard reported that one of the gunmen is dead, though it is unclear whether he shot himself or whether he was shot by the police or someone else.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Back Into IMCL
Investing note: I reopened my long position in ImClone Systems (NASDAQ: IMCL) today @ 40.50. The negative effect from the news release earlier this week wasn't nearly as strong as I thought it was going to be. My expectation is that there is going to be a healthy run in this stock at some point between now and mid June, and after struggling with this one for so long I just don't want to miss it. Naturally there is risk, but we already know IMCL will be moving into 2nd and 1st line colorectal cancer treatment, so the downside risk is somewhat mitigated.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Thoughts on the Don Imus Firing
NBC news is reporting right now that radio “shock jock” Don Imus, having just recently been dropped from MSNBC's TV broadcast, is now being let go by CBS, meaning that his radio show is going to be cancelled altogether.
I have mixed feelings about this whole situation. I used to watch Don Imus on MSNBC early in the morning before going to work. I think his acerbic wit is hilarious; however, I used to get really perturbed at his use of certain slang terminology with reference to certain body parts. It really used to bother me. If he was knocked off the air for that, I would completely understand and probably be in favor of it.
This whole tempest that has blown up over his passing reference to the Rutgers women's basketball team as “nappy-headed ho's,” though, if you ask me, is just way overdone. Do I think it's okay to make such a reference? Absolutely not! But the guy was really only satirizing the type of talk that is prevalent in the hip-hop community, and everyone knows full-well he didn't really believe the literal meaning of those words. Nevertheless, Imus deeply and sincerely apologized over and over, and he was obviously sincere about it. I think the two-week suspension he was originally given would have been commensurate with his tasteless and senseless remark.
But, looking at the bright side, his foul mouth is now, at least temporarily, off the airwaves. Personally I'd much rather see Howard Stern shown the door.
I have mixed feelings about this whole situation. I used to watch Don Imus on MSNBC early in the morning before going to work. I think his acerbic wit is hilarious; however, I used to get really perturbed at his use of certain slang terminology with reference to certain body parts. It really used to bother me. If he was knocked off the air for that, I would completely understand and probably be in favor of it.
This whole tempest that has blown up over his passing reference to the Rutgers women's basketball team as “nappy-headed ho's,” though, if you ask me, is just way overdone. Do I think it's okay to make such a reference? Absolutely not! But the guy was really only satirizing the type of talk that is prevalent in the hip-hop community, and everyone knows full-well he didn't really believe the literal meaning of those words. Nevertheless, Imus deeply and sincerely apologized over and over, and he was obviously sincere about it. I think the two-week suspension he was originally given would have been commensurate with his tasteless and senseless remark.
But, looking at the bright side, his foul mouth is now, at least temporarily, off the airwaves. Personally I'd much rather see Howard Stern shown the door.
Avastin Quarterly Sales Up 34% Year Over Year
Sales of Genentech's (NYSE: DNA) Avastin in the first quarter this year are reported to have increased 34% over the same quarter last year from $398 to $533 million dollars. When they file their form 10-Q with the SEC, I believe you will find that Avastin sales in metastatic colorectal cancer over that period are more-or-less flat, while the lion's share of that increase comes as a result of Genentech's having received FDA approval of for its use in combination with chemotherapy agents carboplatin and paclitaxel for first-line treatment of patients with unresectable, locally advanced, recurrent or metastatic non-squamous, non-small cell lung cancer. That FDA approval came on Oct. 11, 2006. While not yet FDA approved for treatment of breast cancer, I believe an increasing number of oncologists are also using Avastin off-label in this indication, which also contributed to the increase. Additionally, opthamologists are using Avastin off-label in the treatment of choroidal neovascular membrane (CNV) in age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
Avastin (bevacizumab) is an anti-VEGF humanized antibody approved for use in combination with intravenous 5-fluorouracil based chemotherapy as a treatment for patients with first- or second-line metastatic cancer of the colon or rectum. VEGF is an acronym for “vascular endothelial growth factor,” a protein that stimulates the growth of new blood vessels from pre-existing vasculature.
Avastin (bevacizumab) is an anti-VEGF humanized antibody approved for use in combination with intravenous 5-fluorouracil based chemotherapy as a treatment for patients with first- or second-line metastatic cancer of the colon or rectum. VEGF is an acronym for “vascular endothelial growth factor,” a protein that stimulates the growth of new blood vessels from pre-existing vasculature.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Baker Hughes, Inc.
I just opened a long position in Baker Hughes, Inc. (NYSE: BHI) this morning for $69.40.
This Houston based company is a supplier of products and technology services and systems to the worldwide oil and natural gas industry, including products and services for drilling, formation evaluation, completion and production of oil and natural gas wells. It's showing a very healthy 27% profit margin and a relatively low multiple of 10, with a forecast of 15% growth in earnings in its next fiscal year.
This Houston based company is a supplier of products and technology services and systems to the worldwide oil and natural gas industry, including products and services for drilling, formation evaluation, completion and production of oil and natural gas wells. It's showing a very healthy 27% profit margin and a relatively low multiple of 10, with a forecast of 15% growth in earnings in its next fiscal year.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
ImClone Drops on Negative Pancreatic News
ImClone is trading between 7 and 8 percent lower this afternoon as I write this and here is why:
Needless to say I'm really disappointed by this news. I was so hoping for positive results out of this trial, not only for the obvious reasons of price appreciation to a stock that I happen to own a lot of, but also for the fact that tens of thousands of people who are diagnosed with this particularly hard-to-treat form of cancer will now not receive a more powerful weapon with which to fight it.
On an investing note, I sold all my shares early this afternoon for an average price of $39.181. I am considering either buying some Aug. $40 call options or else perhaps simply buying back the shares I sold—hopefully at a lower price. I do still believe the data to be released at ASCO the 1st week in June will drive the price higher, but things are just a bit too dicey right now to be making any hasty moves. I've decided to wait for the dust to clear somewhat.
NEW YORK, April 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ImClone Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq: IMCL) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) today announced that a Phase III study of ERBITUX(R) (Cetuximab) plus gemcitabine (a chemotherapy) in patients with locally advanced unresectable or metastatic pancreatic cancer did not meet its primary endpoint of improving overall survival.Link to the whole story.
Needless to say I'm really disappointed by this news. I was so hoping for positive results out of this trial, not only for the obvious reasons of price appreciation to a stock that I happen to own a lot of, but also for the fact that tens of thousands of people who are diagnosed with this particularly hard-to-treat form of cancer will now not receive a more powerful weapon with which to fight it.
On an investing note, I sold all my shares early this afternoon for an average price of $39.181. I am considering either buying some Aug. $40 call options or else perhaps simply buying back the shares I sold—hopefully at a lower price. I do still believe the data to be released at ASCO the 1st week in June will drive the price higher, but things are just a bit too dicey right now to be making any hasty moves. I've decided to wait for the dust to clear somewhat.
Monday, April 9, 2007
Don't Top Off Your Tank Just Yet
The May price for a barrel of light sweet crude on the NYMEX fell 4% today.
Sunday, April 8, 2007
The Analysts Finally Begin to See the Light of Day
Some excerpts from an article by Adam Feuerstein on ImClone for TheStreet.com, Apr. 7, 2007 (all emphasis mine):
[. . .] I have had a love-hate [emphasis on the word “hate”—Rob] relationship with ImClone for years. I've done some of my best work on the stock and, sadly, some of my worst.This stuff Feuerstein is now (mostly) saying is the stuff I've been preaching for a couple years now. Note the hallowed reverence with which Mr. Feuerstein still prostrates himself before the Avastin juggernaut. I guarantee that behind closed doors Genentech management is not taking a light view of Erbitux about now.
[. . .]I think ImClone has a very good stretch ahead of it.[. . .]
At next week's annual meeting of the American Association of Cancer Research, ImClone will be presenting positive survival data from a study of Erbitux in third-line colon cancer as well as positive data from a study combining Erbitux and chemotherapy in second-line colon cancer.
[At the ASCO meeting in June] we'll get more good Erbitux data, including first-line colon cancer data combining Erbitux and chemotherapy (the so-called Crystal study) as well as new and positive data on Erbitux in head-and-neck cancer.
[Referencing a Southwest Oncology Group trial, there is also] Erbitux data from a big pancreatic cancer trial any day.
[. . .] I also think some of the new colon cancer data we'll get in the next few months will help Erbitux gain share in the second-line colon cancer treatment market.
I don't think Erbitux is powerful enough, necessarily, to go after Genentech's (DNA) Avastin in front-line colon cancer, [I disagree.—Rob] but ImClone still wins if doctors see Erbitux as the go-to second-line drug for their colon cancer patients.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Take Me to Your ... Cave?
From Science Daily:
Scientists suspect Mars might have caves
Excerpts:
“U.S. scientists say images of black spots taken by NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter might be caves rather than impact craters as initially believed.
“[. . .]‘If there is life on Mars, there is a good chance you'd find it in caves,’ said [Jut] Wynne, project leader for the United States Geological Survey's Earth-Mars Cave Detection Program.”
Okay, first let me say that I love that Science Daily Web site. Now, I can go along with the idea that there may be caves on Mars, but life? You can put me on record right here as saying they will never find life on Mars. That’s National Enquirer and Weely World News stuff as far as I’m concerned.
Scientists suspect Mars might have caves
Excerpts:
“U.S. scientists say images of black spots taken by NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter might be caves rather than impact craters as initially believed.
“[. . .]‘If there is life on Mars, there is a good chance you'd find it in caves,’ said [Jut] Wynne, project leader for the United States Geological Survey's Earth-Mars Cave Detection Program.”
Okay, first let me say that I love that Science Daily Web site. Now, I can go along with the idea that there may be caves on Mars, but life? You can put me on record right here as saying they will never find life on Mars. That’s National Enquirer and Weely World News stuff as far as I’m concerned.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Watch IMCL (ImClone Systems)
Keep an eye on IMCL. 43.08 is the intraday high going all the way back to Mar. 4, 2005. If it manages to bust through with any kind of momentum and volume, the next level of serious resistance should somewhere in the 46 area. When that one falls, next stop: 55. |  |
Faces in the News
Update
An update on my position in CNBC’s “Million-dollar Portfolio Challenge”:
As you can see, I did make a couple of poor trades that whacked my score down to size. Due to the nature of this contest, one is practically forced into going all in on one stock and hoping to find ... what? ... “serendipity”? ... “fortuitousness”? “Luck” is not part of my vocabulary. We’ll see where it goes from here.
Here are the trades I made those few days that killed me:
3/21:
Bought 16,850 shares of MLHR at 37.84
Bought 14,185 shares of CHL at 46.18
3/22:
Sold 16,850 shares of MLHR at 33.43 (-11.65%)
Sold 14,185 shares of CHL at 46.29 (+0.24%)
Bought 49,054 shares of JBL at $24.93
3/23:
Sold 49,054 shares of JBL at $22.26 (-10.71%)
As you can see, I did make a couple of poor trades that whacked my score down to size. Due to the nature of this contest, one is practically forced into going all in on one stock and hoping to find ... what? ... “serendipity”? ... “fortuitousness”? “Luck” is not part of my vocabulary. We’ll see where it goes from here.
Here are the trades I made those few days that killed me:
3/21:
Bought 16,850 shares of MLHR at 37.84
Bought 14,185 shares of CHL at 46.18
3/22:
Sold 16,850 shares of MLHR at 33.43 (-11.65%)
Sold 14,185 shares of CHL at 46.29 (+0.24%)
Bought 49,054 shares of JBL at $24.93
3/23:
Sold 49,054 shares of JBL at $22.26 (-10.71%)
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Why Would Google Want AOL?
Here's one from the rumor mill. I was reading a post in Susan Mernit's Blog, in which she writes:
According to Time Warner's latest 10-K report, AOL's subscribers in Europe and the United States dropped by 10 million to 15.5 million between Dec. '05 and Dec. '06, and 52% of that loss occurred in the last three months. That's a very serious problem, and as a Google shareholder myself, I'm not too thrilled at this prospect.
Google's latest 10-K reports $13 billion in total current assets. They certainly have the wherewithal to acquire the sinking ship, but why would they?
I got an email from a friend who spent this evening on one of NYC's top restaurants. He said "I was seated near some people from Google and AOL who were celebrating some sort of deal. They'd signed papers and wanted to sit off by themselves so no one could hear them talk."I don't know what to think of this. Although Google, I believe, already owns a 5% stake in AOL (a division of Time Warner), I can't imagine their wanting the whole thing, unless they've got a very creative and aggressive plan to turn it around.
According to Time Warner's latest 10-K report, AOL's subscribers in Europe and the United States dropped by 10 million to 15.5 million between Dec. '05 and Dec. '06, and 52% of that loss occurred in the last three months. That's a very serious problem, and as a Google shareholder myself, I'm not too thrilled at this prospect.
Google's latest 10-K reports $13 billion in total current assets. They certainly have the wherewithal to acquire the sinking ship, but why would they?
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